Texas Tech’s defense is stifling opponents at a historic level. It has an adjusted defensive efficiency of 83.5, which over a full season would be the best of the KenPom era, outpacing the 2015 Kentucky team that finished at 84.4.
The Red Raiders are incredible at field goal defense and turning teams over, ranking first in the former and third in the latter. No team has ever finished the season in the top five in both categories. Since 2002, only three teams have finished in the top 10 in both.
Not only has Texas Tech yet to give up 1 point per possession. Only one opponent has cracked 0.9 PPP. It is torture to play against that defense. pic.twitter.com/JshFWKOTyw
— CJ Moore (@CJMooreHoops) January 5, 2019
Chris Beard’s squad has done all that against a strong schedule after losing its two best players from last year: guards Keenan Evans and Zhaire Smith.
Even still, it held Nebraska to .79 points per possession (PPP) and Duke to .84 PPP. America’s worst offense scores .86 PPP. Which is a long way of saying that Texas Tech’s defense has held one top-15 KenPom team (Nebraska) and America’s best offense — with the likely top two picks in the NBA Draft — to less than America’s worst offense averages.
With the defense holding up so well, the Red Raiders just have to hope the offense can hold up its end of the bargain. In Texas Tech’s only loss, against Duke at Madison Square Garden, it scored just .71 PPP. They finished with .89 PPP against West Virginia — a team so out of sorts they started a walk-on against Texas — and just .93 PPP against Kansas State.
Texas Tech struggles in two areas. First, they frequently can’t space the floor. The Red Raiders are 154th in three-point shooting. And they’re just 328th in three-point attempts. But Kansas State didn’t make a field goal for the first nine minutes against Texas Tech. The Wildcats got back in the game by packing the paint.
Until Texas Tech makes more shots like this out of their box set, they’ll be in trouble:
Quite a few of Texas Tech’s turnovers are when the shot clock gets late. The Red Raiders pass up good shots in the hopes of great shots in their motion offense. That can leave Matt Mooney, Davide Moretti, and Jarrett Culver having to win one-on-one. They’re capable of that, but it’s led to quite a few turnovers:
The Red Raiders rank 188th in turnover percentage, turning it over on 19.3 percent of their possessions. Giving away so many possessions makes it tough to build a quality offense. Maryland is the only top-25 KenPom offense to turn it over at least that much.
Here the Red Raiders run a version of 45, an old Clippers play in the Blake Griffin-DeAndre Jordan era. When their initial action fails in that set, things can go poorly:
While Texas Tech’s offense hasn’t been good enough, there are some reasons for optimism. Culver has been one of the country’s best players. He’s scored in double-digits in every game but one. His 42 percent mark from three-point range provides needed spacing, and when teams hone in on him, he’s made nice passes out of Texas Tech’s horns set:
The Red Raiders are also working Mooney into the offense. He transferred from South Dakota and had an adjusted offensive rating of 109 last season. He’s down to 95 this year, but a man that can beat Tre Jones off the dribble will get that number up:
Nore Odiase also is a force to defend. The 6’8, 250-pound fifth-year senior is an exceptional passer out of the pick-and-roll. When he plays — he’s on the floor for about 37 percent of their minutes — his skills as a passer come in handy:
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/13671410/Texas_Tech_and_South_Carolina.png "Texas Tech has a historically dominant defense. Is the offense good enough for a Final Four run? (1)")
In 2017, South Carolina made the Final Four with a similar profile. The Gameco*cks finished the year 91st on offense and third on defense. They were top-15 in both turnovers and effective field goal defense, just like Texas Tech. The Red Raiders rank within five spots of the 2017 Gameco*cks in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Both South Carolina and Texas Tech have another similarity: one of the 10 best players in the sport.
Sindarius Thornwell finished seventh in the KenPom Player of the Year rankings and was the SEC Player of the Year. He scored at least 24 points in each game on the road to the Final Four. He took over South Carolina’s anemic offense and willed them to the victory last weekend. Similarly, Texas Tech has a top-10 player. Culver ranks fourth in KenPom’s Player of the Year ranking and if the season ended today, he’d be a co-favorite (along with Dedric Lawson) for Big 12 Player of the Year. He can take over a couple of weekends like Thornwell did in the 2017 tournament.
Plenty of teams similar to Texas Tech have flamed out early in the NCAA tournament. Bart Torvik has a comparable NCAA tournament stat. Among the teams most similar to the 2019 Red Raiders, only Louisville in 2013 and South Carolina in 2017 made the Final Four.
Texas Tech has plenty of reasons to think they could make that kind of journey into March Madness. They’re playing unprecedented defense. They have a profile similar to two Final Four teams. They have one of the country’s best players. Nothing is guaranteed in this sport, but Texas Tech could certainly make the program’s first Final Four.
